Non-life premiums in emerging Asia – excluding China – will grow by 6.6 per cent in real terms over the course of 2023, while advanced Asia will grow by 1.4 per cent over the same period, according to Swiss Re.
According to Swiss Re’s latest Sigma report, both emerging and advanced Asian markets will outperform their respective categories in 2023.
Emerging Asia’s real premium growth is expected to improve slightly from 6 per cent in 2022, and remain above the average annual growth of 6.3 per cent between 2012 and 2021.
The broader emerging market is estimated to grow by 4.5% in 2023, below the 2012-2021 annual average of 7.1%.
The Chinese market is expected to lead the way with estimated non-life premium growth of 6.8 per cent, but growth in the Latin American market is expected to slow to 0.9 per cent and the EMEA emerging markets are expected to remain broadly flat in 2023.
Developed Asia’s 1.4 per cent increase is said to be the result of China’s reopening and market hardening.
It is expected to outperform advanced EMEA and North America, both of which are forecast to grow between 0.7% and 0.8%.
Asia-Pacific non-life insurers have also outperformed their US, UK and European counterparts relative to major equity indices.
Swiss Re noted that compared to the US, UK, Germany and Italy, Japanese insurers have a smaller gap to target return on equity in 2022, with no significant narrowing expected in 2023.
Asian insurers hold 24% of global market share
Asian countries accounted for eight of the world’s 20 largest insurance markets in 2022, although the US continued to dominate market share (43.7%).
The total market share of Asian markets was 24% in 2022, with the second-largest market share coming from China at 10.3%.
The second and third largest Asian markets were Japan and South Korea, with market shares of 5 per cent and 2.7 per cent respectively.
Both saw a slight drop in market share compared to their 2021 figures, with Japan dropping to fourth place after losing 0.9 percentage points of market share.
It was replaced in third place by the UK insurance market, which itself saw its market share fall by 0.1 percentage points to 5.4%.
South Korea maintained its seventh position with a 0.2 point drop in market share.
Swiss Re highlighted the Indian market, currently ranked eleventh, as one that it expects to grow significantly.
It said the Indian market is likely to leapfrog Germany, Canada and South Korea to become the world’s sixth largest insurance market by 2032.
“Our outlook is based on expectations of strong economic growth, rising disposable incomes, India’s young population, increased risk awareness and digital penetration, and regulatory developments,” Swiss Re said.
