The number of Arizonans with health insurance rose in 2022, a post-pandemic bump that experts say likely turned sharply south the following year as COVID-19 benefits expired.
Recent data from the Census Bureau shows that the percentage of Arizonans with health insurance rose from 89.3% in 2021 to 89.7% in 2022. While this is an improvement, the state still lags slightly behind the nation, where coverage rose 0.7% from 91.3% of Americans with insurance to 92% over the same period.
Experts say this increase was likely due to the increased availability of Medicaid during the pandemic health emergency. But as the country has moved away from COVID-19 programmes and protocols over the past year, one change is that states are no longer prohibited from kicking people off their Medicaid rolls.
Arizona’s Medicaid programme, the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System, reported this month that it had removed 289,184 people from the rolls since it began disenrolling people earlier this year. AHCCCS estimates that as many as 500,000 Arizonans could eventually be dropped.
Nationally, between 8 million and 24 million Americans could lose coverage, according to estimates by KFF, the nonprofit formerly known as the Kaiser Family Foundation.
Losing coverage could come as a surprise to some people who are currently covered, said Dr Daniel Derksen, an associate vice president for health equity, outreach and interprofessional activities at the University of Arizona.
“It often takes six or eight months for people to figure it out,” Derksen said. “They find out when they go for their annual visit or when they have to go to the emergency room for some reason, and it’s like, ‘Oh, I thought I had coverage,’ and they don’t anymore.”
Analysts said the decline in health insurance could be worse, but is likely being supported by the current high level of employment. Arizona’s unemployment rate has hovered near historic lows of 3.5% for much of this year, and was an estimated 3.8% in August, the most recent month for which figures are available from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“We’re employing more Arizonans and we have a lower unemployment rate,” said Chad Heinrich, president and CEO of Arizonans for Affordable Health Coverage, “When more people are working, they’re getting that benefit through their employers.”
According to the Census Bureau report, the percentage of Arizonans covered by Medicaid will decrease from 21.4 percent in 2021 to 20.8 percent in 2022, while the percentage of state residents covered through work will increase from 50.9 percent to 51.2 percent. The remainder of those covered in the state purchased coverage privately.
Derksen said that many people lost their health insurance when they lost their jobs during the pandemic, which is where the expansion of Medicaid helped.
“Fortunately for many of these people, when they lost their jobs and lost their employer-sponsored insurance, they were now eligible for Medicaid,” he said. “So there was this safety net of public insurance provided by Medicaid.”
Morgan Finkelstein, state director for Protect Our Care Arizona, said another factor that helped with coverage was the Affordable Care Act. Enacted in 2010, it requires Americans to have a minimum level of health coverage, but also provides financial assistance to make insurance more affordable.
“Extending open enrollment and increasing outreach and enrollment assistance has made coverage more affordable and accessible for Arizona families than in the past, especially for families purchasing their own coverage,” Finkelstein said.
Arizona began rolling back its Medicaid safety net on April 1. While enrollment in AHCCCS is expected to continue declining through early 2024, advocates like Finkelstein said it’s important to keep pushing for expanded coverage.
“When we take care of people, we see our country thrive,” Finkelstein said. “People are able to go about their daily lives with ease and success when they don’t have to worry about cutting costs for life-saving medications, or maybe getting a checkup for a condition they don’t have insurance for.”
