According to new analysis by the United Nations, the world is likely to miss a target for cutting emissions this decade by a significant margin, leading to more dangerous global warming. The latest climate plans submitted by countries indicate that total CO2 emissions into the atmosphere in 2030 will only be 2.6% lower than in 2019. This is far short of the 43% reduction that would be needed to achieve the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5C.
The UN Climate Change synthesized the latest climate plans and found that the best estimate of where temperatures will peak this century is between 2.1C-2.8C, based on these plans. However, there is still a possibility that emissions could peak this decade.
Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of UN Climate Change, warned that “Greenhouse gas pollution at these levels will guarantee a human and economic trainwreck for every country, without exception. Every fraction of a degree matters, as climate disasters get rapidly worse.”
The landmark Paris Agreement in 2015 aimed to limit global warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels, and ideally to 1.5C. However, the UN Climate Change report states that the world is on course to use up almost 90% of its remaining carbon budget this decade, which is calculated based on how much can still be emitted while giving half a chance of keeping global warming below 1.5C.
The report warns that after 2030, only around 70 gigatons of CO2 would be left in the budget, roughly equivalent to two years of emissions based on current levels. The situation is dire, with another UN body predicting last week that the world was on course for warming of up to 3.1C, which would bring into play a number of climate tipping points that would accelerate the prevalence of extreme weather events.
World leaders are set to gather in Baku, Azerbaijan in two weeks’ time for the COP29 climate summit, where they will focus on how to scale up climate finance for developing countries to help them with the transition and cope with the worst impacts of climate change. However, the question of what more can be done to slash emissions beyond last year’s deal to transition away from fossil fuels will receive less focus.
Countries are required to submit fresh climate plans aligned with the 1.5C goal before the COP30 summit in Brazil next year.
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