According to Swiss Re’s “Growth in the Shadow of (Geo-)Politics” sigma report, global life insurance premiums are set for significant growth. The premiums are projected to grow at an annual rate of 3% in 2025 and 2026, which is more than double the growth rate of the previous decade. Key factors fueling this growth include rising real wages, higher interest rates, ageing populations, and the expanding middle class in emerging markets. Swiss Re’s CEO of Life & Health Reinsurance, Paul Murray, noted that higher interest rates and the retirement of baby boomers are revitalizing the insurance savings market.
The report forecasts global life insurance premiums to increase from $3.1 trillion in 2024 to $4.8 trillion by 2035. There is a strong demand for savings products, especially in the US and China. In the US, individual annuity sales are expected to exceed $400 billion in 2024, compared to a ten-year average of $234 billion. In China, reductions in guaranteed interest rates have spurred sales of long-term savings products, a trend that is likely to continue. In Europe, unit-linked insurance sales are on the rise, particularly in Italy and France, and this trend may expand to the US and other markets as central banks adjust interest rates. Consumers in advanced economies are also transitioning from fixed annuities to index-linked policies.
The 2024 US election could widen disparities in global economic paths, affecting growth, inflation, and central bank policies. Meanwhile, China’s economy is predicted to slow down further, with GDP growth estimated at 4.6% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026. Although recent stimulus measures might boost short-term confidence, they may not resolve the structural issues.
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